So what do you get when you combine steadily rising oil prices, massive deficit spending by both Washington and Local Governments alike, high interest rates, and finally a massive decline in the number of people in peak spending years? FLUSH thats the sound of the American Economy and Stock market sometime around 2009-2015.
For a starter Paul O'neil credits the late 90's economic prosperity on the Clinton Administration and Republican Congress' balancing the federal budgets. Eliminating the deficit brought long term interests rates low.
In terms of Oil, many people including yours truly, are convinced, that its only going to get more expensive. And they aren't talking about in dollars. They mean in the amount of energy that will be required to extract it. See The Long Emergency for a discussion of the Hubert Oil Peak Theory.
In terms of the demographics, see any books by Harry Dent for a discussion of this problem.